While walking down a dark side street in a big city, you see a table where a barker is being watched by a few other people as he places a pea under one of three cups, shifts the cups around on the table repeatedly and then exposes the a cup, showing that the pea is under that cup. “It is a game of skill,” he says, “for the skilled among you to determine which cup the pea is under and I will give you two to one odds on any wager you would like to make on your skill.” So far as you watch others playing, winning and losing, you note that you always seem to guess correctly where the pea is. So you finally decide to make a wager on a game.
You watch the barker place the pea under one of the cups and begin to shift their positions, but this time much more rapidly than before, so that when he’s done you are not at all sure under which cup the pea is. But you still pick one of the cups, waiting anxiously for him to expose the pea. At that point, however, he exposes one of the other cups to show that the pea is not under that one and tells you that he will now allow you to change your pick to the remaining cup if you want. If you change your pick, will it increase your chances of winning, decrease your chances of winning or have no effect? See Answer.